Mr. Leopold Bloom was clearly given to sensuous pleasures but he wasn’t entirely immune to the pleasures of the mind. Following yesterday’s market action, most of us probably feel the need to scale back a little from our sensuous pleasures, such as eating the “inner organs of beasts and fowls”, and give more weight to reflective or cerebral pursuits.
After closely watching market behavior for more than 25 years I am quite capable of boring you with pages of analysis about Kondratieff winters, Elliott Wave Cycles, and Austrian Business Cycle Theory. I could also decide to keep things simple and just talk about the end of the great credit binge that started in 1980.
I could do all these things, but I won’t, because it’s become crystal clear to virtually everyone except central bankers, that, largely because of their actions, we live in a serial bubble economy, where asset prices are only allowed to fall with the utmost reluctance, it being thought “a bad thing,” whenever houses, equities and gasoline, fall in price, especially precipitously. Consequently, everything that can be done to inflate asset prices is attempted, from money printing to interest rate manipulation. While Chinese authorities recently attempted to bolster equity prices by ordering state-owned enterprises to buy stocks, in the U.S. the plunge protection team resorts to more subtle but, in the long run, just as ineffective methods.
What’s to be done? For the average investor theoretical knowledge has proved to be next to useless because what should happen is often prevented from happening by central banks, in the same way that I can temporarily prevent a friend’s bankruptcy by giving them another credit card. Sure, I delay the day of reckoning, but now I’ve also made the problem worse by increasing their debt burden. How and when central banks will choose to act this time or the next time, can only be divined by close attention to the political tea leaves, a skill decidedly lacking in mere mortals.
For those of us with enough time, who require a positive return over and above taxation and inflation, while lacking the requisite divination skills to know when the Fed will step in with QE4 and/or QE5, there is no choice but to stay the course, waiting for a reversion to the mean. After all, from 1926 to 2015 the S&P 500 returned almost 12 percent/year including reinvestment of dividends. While there is certainly no guarantee that the future will be similar to the past, I for one believe that, as long as people continue to innovate and to improve their lives, stocks will generate a decent return over the long run. Yes, I know that Keynes said “In the long run we are all dead…”
“Mr Leopold Bloom ate with relish the inner organs of beasts and fowls. … Most of all he liked grilled mutton kidneys which gave to his palate a fine tang of faintly scented urine.” James Joyce (Ulysses)
Please note that this article is not intended as legal or financial advice.
January 14, 2016 at 2:30 am
Hi Malcolm, how refreshing to read an honest assessment (future) Albeit I thought it would be about chopped liver……… Hope you are all good Jxx
January 14, 2016 at 12:02 pm
Thank you Jan. Happy New Year. Ah, chopped liver! I miss the taste, even though I’m now a vegan 🙂
January 14, 2016 at 6:04 am
Well, Keynes was an idiot and thus it makes sense the bureaucrats worship his economic theories.
It’s always good to see you’re still around, Malcolm. How’s the book going?
January 14, 2016 at 12:00 pm
Matt, Keynes may have been wrong on some important issues but he was certainly no idiot. In addition to his formidable intellect and sparkling conversation, he made a fortune on the stock market.
The less said about the book, the better, at least for now 🙂
January 14, 2016 at 8:08 am
Nice to have you back!
Boy I hope you’re right about staying the course. That’s been my so-called strategy.
I’d actually love to hear about economic theory, but then again, being a philosopher, I tend to like useless knowledge. 🙂
January 14, 2016 at 11:56 am
Thank you. Nice to be back! As to useless knowledge I’m reminded of the adage that we all follow our illusions but those illusions just happen to be the best thing about us.
January 14, 2016 at 4:24 pm
Good to see you back my electronic friend. Keep writing it will fall into place eventually. Nice article. I was actually thinking about something original for my site, if so you might see it soon, on solar powered cemetery lights.
January 14, 2016 at 7:25 pm
“Solar powered cemetery lights”. I can’t wait. Intense imagination went into that phrase. I hope life is treating you well. I did tell you I’m not a good correspondent.
January 14, 2016 at 6:10 pm
Glad to see that you’ve returned to the blogosphere, my friend!
January 14, 2016 at 7:28 pm
Did not do any wilderness stuff last year. Don’t know whether it’s age or circumstances. I look forward to catching up with your writing and reading about your explorations.
January 14, 2016 at 6:29 pm
Nice to have you back!
Hopefully, that regression to the mean won’t be too painful, but I think you’re right, the inflating and deflating will continue…don’t get caught on the surface of a bubble.
January 14, 2016 at 7:33 pm
Thanks Chris, i missed you too. Glad to see from your picture that you have made so much money in the stock market that you are now buying fine art!
January 14, 2016 at 7:43 pm
Ah, my friend, that is one of the best copies of ‘The Girl With The Pearl Earring’ money can buy.
January 14, 2016 at 8:32 pm
My mistake. I thought you could afford the original.
January 14, 2016 at 8:36 pm
Hey, you’re the money manager!
January 15, 2016 at 8:09 am
So happy to see a familiar face and hear your distinct voice again! Hope you finished writing your book, and I hope it is a great success!
January 15, 2016 at 6:08 pm
Thank you. The book may have to wait until the teenager goes to college. I have not been very good at blocking out time.
January 15, 2016 at 5:49 pm
I’ve missed your wit and intelligence. Lovely to see you again.
Audra
January 15, 2016 at 6:13 pm
Flattery will get you everywhere 🙂
January 16, 2016 at 2:47 pm
Welcome back Malcolm. Thanks for touching on a ‘touchy’ subject here. Always refreshing to hear your spin. 🙂
January 27, 2016 at 4:49 pm
You write about relationships and all things personal and yet you call the stock market a ‘touchy’ subject. Interesting. Financial Planners often say that in the U.S. the subject of money is more taboo than sex.
January 27, 2016 at 6:32 pm
Touche! I’m sort of a Jill of all trades. A girl has to look after her assets too! (Pun intended.) 🙂
February 25, 2016 at 6:50 am
Leave off the internal organs of beast and fowl? Not likely. 😉
I was wondering if, in your professional opinion, stocks are going to remain a good investment as the rich (and even rising) world population starts to fall?
February 26, 2016 at 11:58 pm
Ben, I worry more about debt than I do about population. At some point the U.S. will default on its debt and while that may be a good thing in the long term, it would definitely not be something to look forward to in the short run. However, as usual with these type of events the timing is unknowable.
February 27, 2016 at 1:15 am
Why now, if you don’t mind? Debt to GDP has been considerably higher in the past, hasn’t it?
February 27, 2016 at 1:37 am
No, and it’s approximately 40 percent higher than it was in 2007 before the financial crisis.
February 27, 2016 at 5:31 am
I meant historically.
https://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/debt-and-gdp-main6.png?w=1024&h=603
February 27, 2016 at 5:21 pm
Ben, your graphic refers only to public debt but I was referring to total credit market debt which includes both private and government debt. Check out total credit market debt to GDP and you will see a completely different picture.
February 27, 2016 at 5:26 pm
Ah, got it.
What do you think is driving all the leverage?
February 28, 2016 at 1:11 pm
A broken political system together with central bank hubris. Even when the Government is not directly to blame they end up being the indirect cause. For example, the build-up of sub-prime loans was influenced by the Government making it plain that they wanted companies to lend to minorities and the credit-impaired and would ease up on regulatory standards. Bank deposit insurance continues to ensure that banks don’t compete on safety just on deposit rates, thus encouraging aggressive behaviors. We no longer have a self-regulating system like the gold standard to keep a check on credit expansion. Most central bankers went to the same schools and have absorbed both monetarism and Keynesian economics with their mother’s milk. Consequently the only thing they know is to keep priming the pumps of credit expansion which only postpones the day of reckoning and leads to malinvestments. Add to this the belief that some institutions are too big to fail and that risk should be socialized, and you get a recipe for runaway credit expansion that will only come to an end with debt default. The tech crash and the 2008 financial crisis are the early warning signs of the end of this expansionary credit cycle that has lasted for over 30 years. As GDP slows down the debt to GDP ratio starts to rise dramatically as it did during the Great Depression of the 1930’s.
February 27, 2016 at 5:34 am
Although I guess the situation is quite a bit different. The privatization of profit and socialization of loss – basically moral hazard – seems like a likely reason for all the leverage.
Btw, what are you opinions on the value (or not) of investment banks. I’ve heard some pretty convincing arguments that exotic financial instruments don’t actually have much value.
March 25, 2017 at 9:48 am
There is no “gag-a-magot” button, so I used the “like” button.